With the threat of a second lockdown looming, Covid-19 cases continue to rise with a recorded 84,000 cases in Nassau County and 939,000 cases in New York State. For the entire month of December, new daily cases went from 7,293 to 12,917 cases; that means that there has been about a 77.1% increase in daily cases over the span of a month. The question is: “How much more time before a second lockdown happens?” To answer this question, we have to look at the main factors that would cause a lockdown.

The number of daily cases in the state will determine the lockdown: more cases mean more people in hospitals. If the hospitals are overcrowded and cannot nurse enough people, New York State will be in big trouble. So, in turn, the amount of hospital capacity will determine whether there is a lockdown or not. At the rate daily cases are rising, a lockdown seems to be very probable; however, another piece of the puzzle comes into play: the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine. The vaccine has already come out to the public but is not being distributed efficiently enough to meet the demands of the rising cases. If the vaccine is distributed more swiftly so that the amount of cases does not overrun the hospitals, the threat of a lockdown will disappear.

Since the vaccine is taken in two installments, the second one being taken 21 days after the first one, there could still be overcrowding in hospitals for a short period of time. The vaccine is proven to be 95% successful in creating antibodies for Covid-19, so as long as it is released sufficiently and in a timely manner, society can return to normal pre-Covid life. Only time can tell.