On November 5 and the days preceding it, over 140 million Americans went out to vote, in person and via mail. Those Americans ultimately elected former President Donald Trump, by a slim but relatively decisive margin. As of November 13, according to the Associated Press, he has won 50.2% of the popular vote and 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48.1% and 226, respectively. The results were a let-down for the Harris campaign, with her failing to win all seven key battleground states (PA, GA, NC, MI, AZ, WI, and NV) and the popular vote.
Polling in the days prior to the election had shown all states to be roughly an even split between Harris and Trump. Yet, Trump’s victory was projected by major news organizations just the morning after polls closed, in sharp contrast to the four days it took in 2020 for President Biden. President-elect Trump is the second person in American history to win two Presidential elections non-consecutively, with the other being Grover Cleveland in 1884 and 1892.
Less surprisingly, the Republicans won the senate, too. The Democrats were to defend 23 of the 34 senate seats up for election — including in traditionally Republican strongholds, like Montana and West Virginia. In other words, the election map was unfavorable for Democrats, and Republicans regaining the senate was expected by most political pundits. Republicans gained in Montana and West Virginia by wide margins, and both Ohio and Pennsylvania by less than five points. They are set to hold a 53-47 senatorial majority over Democrats, come January, as reported by the Associated Press.
While, as of November 13, 10 congressional seats are yet to be called and the GOP one seat short of a majority, it still appears that Republicans will maintain their control over the House of Representatives. If that comes to fruition, combined with the current conservative-majority in the Supreme Court, Republicans will win a trifecta in the federal government.
Trump improved his voter share amongst most demographics nationwide, as per CNN exit polling, carrying him to victory. Most notably, Latino voters supported Trump by -6 points in 2024, compared to -32 points in 2020. Young voters also had a noticeable shift, with Trump improving his margins among that demographic from -34 points in 2020, to -12 points in 2024.
According to CNN exit polling, the most important issues for voters this cycle were, firstly, the state of democracy, and then economy, with immigration and abortion trailing far behind. Exit polling indicates that voters tended to trust Trump more on the economy and immigration, and Harris more on democracy and abortion. Interestingly, voters nevertheless had unfavorable perceptions of both Harris and Trump. For many Americans, on both sides of the aisle, it seems as though they believe they voted for the lesser of two evils.
With Harris’ loss and Trump now term-limited and thus unable to run in 2028, no clear candidate presents itself for 2028, for either party. Both will have to look far and wide to find the best path forward.
